Impact on the global outlook If the virus can be contained in Q1: • China's growth will be halved in Q1, but a large part of the loss will be recovered in Q2 and Q3. A V-shaped recovery. • World growth will be reduced by almost 1 %-points in Q1 and by 0.15 %-points for the whole of 2020. The estimated costs are between USDbn 100 and 200 • If the virus turns into a pandemic: • Global growth in H1 will be weak and could be reduced by 0,3 to 1 %-points for the full year 2020 • The estimated costs will be somewhere between USDbn 300 and 1000 • SARS costed ‘only’ about USDbn 40 4 Confidential
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